Impact of climate change scenarios on the fish production in the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem
Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos  1, *@  , Yunne Shin  2@  , Dante Espinoza-Morriberón  1@  , Carlos Romero  1@  , Vincent Echevin  3@  
1 : Instituto del Mar del Perú  (IMARPE)  -  Website
2 : Institut de Recherche pour le Développement  (CRH, IRD)
CRH
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, CRH, Research Unit MARBEC (UMR 248), avenue Jean Monnet, CS 30171, -  France
3 : Institut de Recherche pour le Développement  (IRD)  -  Website
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
Adresse du siège - Le Sextant 44, bd de Dunkerque, CS 90009 13572 Marseille cedex 02 -  France
* : Corresponding author

The Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem (NHCE) is the more productive ecosystem in terms of fish and sustains the world′s largest small pelagic fishery, the Peruvian anchoveta fishery. A cooling of this system has been observed during recent decades but the potential regional impacts of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations on upwelling dynamics and productivity are still unknown. In this work, we use the ecosystem model OSMOSE to forecast the impact on fish production of several scenarios of climate change in the NHCE. The OSMOSE model is forced by plankton production from ROMS-PISCES, IPSL CM5A-LR and GFDL-ESM2M models for the period 2006-2100. For each model, optimistic (RCP 2.6) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) environmental scenarios are considered. Total fish production and landings for each model and scenario are compared under statu quo and zero fishing effort for all main fisheries. Our results show that the impact of fishing may be as strong as climate to explain future variability in fish production, reason why the design of management procedures must be an important part of the mitigation of the impacts of climate change in the NHCE.


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